Category: Blogs,Mortgage Tips & Advice

Prepare don’t Predict!  

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One of the questions I hear most often before a Bank of Canada announcement is:

“Should I wait to see what the Bank does before deciding between a fixed or variable rate?”

The answer has less to do with predicting rates and more to do with understanding your own comfort level.

Number 1

If a single rate announcement is the difference between choosing a fixed rate and choosing a variable rate, then you’ve probably already made your decision. And that’s okay.

Choosing a variable rate isn’t about believing rates will only go down.

It’s about being comfortable with the fact that they may not.

A variable-rate borrower understands that rates can move up, down, or stay the same and has the financial and emotional capacity to handle that uncertainty.

A fixed-rate borrower values certainty. They want to know exactly what their payment and interest rate will be, regardless of what happens in the economy.

Neither approach is right or wrong.

The mistake is trying to predict the next announcement and basing a five-year mortgage decision on a single quarter-point move.

The decision between fixed and variable should be based on your tolerance for uncertainty, not your prediction of the next Bank of Canada announcement.

Number 2

People often assume that if a Bank of Canada rate cut is expected, they should wait before choosing their mortgage rate because they may get a lower rate.

That can be true in some cases, but it is not always that simple.

With a fixed rate, you are locking in the actual rate itself.

With a variable or adjustable rate, you are typically locking in a discount from Prime, not the Bank of Canada rate directly.

For example, if Prime is 4.45% and your lender offers Prime minus 0.70%, your starting rate would be:

4.45% – 0.70% = 3.75%

If the Bank of Canada later reduces rates and Prime moves lower, your mortgage rate may move lower too.

But the discount you locked in — Prime minus 0.70% — is the part that typically stays the same.

So waiting for the announcement does not always mean you will be offered a better discount.

It’s also important to remember that if rates improve before your closing date, we can often secure the lower rate for you.

That means the decision is not always about trying to perfectly time the market. It’s about choosing the mortgage structure that best fits your goals, your budget, and your comfort level.

Final Thought

Good mortgage planning isn’t about predicting.

It’s about preparing.

Preparing for different outcomes.

Preparing for changing markets.

Preparing for life when things don’t go exactly as expected.

The reality is that none of us know with certainty where rates will be six months, one year, or three years from now.

What we can do is choose a mortgage strategy that allows us to sleep well at night, regardless of what happens next.

Because the best mortgage decision is rarely the one that looks smartest after the fact.

It’s the one that was built around your goals, your risk tolerance, and your lifestyle from the beginning.

Mark Your Calendar with the 2026 Rate Announcement Date

Reminder that the Bank of Canada meets 8 times a year – here are the dates for 2026

• Wednesday, July 15
• Wednesday, September 2
• Wednesday, October 28
• Wednesday, December 9

Book your free mortgage renewal review here:
👉 askanacruz.ca/book-a-call

📞 Let’s review your mortgage solutions—it just makes “cents”!

Talk soon,

Ana

Mortgages can be complicated; we are here to help you make “cents” of it.

We focus on Mortgage Solutions, Period!

To learn more connect with Ana Cruz 905.870.0513 or email at ana@askanacruz.ca